Research paper accepted by IEEE Transactions on Reliability

Ensuring the safety and reliability of deep learning models is critical for their dependable deployment in real-world settings. In this paper, we introduce a unified framework that integrates conformal prediction (CP) with out-of-distribution (OOD) detection to robustly handle diverse inputs and deliver reliable predictions for downstream decision-making. CP provides distribution-free, finite-sample coverage guarantees by constructing prediction sets that contain the true label with a user-specified probability. However, in an open-world environment, the presence of OOD inputs violates the exchangeability assumption that underpins CP’s statistical validity, potentially undermining the coverage guarantee. To address this challenge, we propose a distance-aware OOD detection mechanism that combines spectral normalization with a sparse variational Gaussian process, enabling effective separation of in-distribution (InD) and OOD inputs. While no OOD detector is perfect, we provide a rigorous theoretical analysis of how the undetected OOD contamination affects CP’s coverage, and derives corresponding worst-case coverage bounds. Additionally, we introduce a differentiable loss function that penalizes large prediction sets, encouraging the model to produce compact and informative sets. Together, these components yield an end-to-end trainable framework that delivers strong OOD detection performance, reliable prediction sets, and computational efficiency in a single forward pass. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves competitive performance with state-of-the-art baselines while substantially reducing the average prediction set size and providing reliable uncertainty quantification in open-world scenarios.

Welcome Shenyi Tang and Qingze Peng to join the resesarch group!

We are pleased to welcome Shenyi Tang and Qingze Peng, who recently joined our group as a Ph.D. student and an MPhil student, respectively. Shenyi Tang received her Master degree in Systems Engineering from the University of Pennsylvania, USA in May 2026.

Qingze Peng received his Barchelor’s degree in Information Management and Information System from Sun Yat-sen University, Guangdong, China.

Welcome to join us!

Prof. Xiaoge Zhang delivered a talk on “Uncertainty quantification for reliable AI and its applications to healthcare and traffic systems” at Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, China

As artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly integrated into industrial applications, ensuring its reliability has become imperative, particularly in high-stakes decision-making settings. In this talk, I will present a general uncertainty quantification (UQ)-based framework for implementing reliable AI that proactively addresses both “known unknowns” and “unknown unknowns” that AI models inevitably encounter after deployment. Our proposed framework leverages the complementarity of model-based UQ methods (e.g., Monte Carlo dropout, variational inference) and model-agnostic, distribution-free conformal prediction (CP), together enabling AI models to explicitly express “I do not know” in situations where they are uncertain. In the UQ-based framework, model-based UQ methods are used to manage “unknown unknowns” by detecting inputs that lie outside the applicability domain (AD) of the trained models, thereby defining a region in which the assumption of data exchangeability is more plausible for conformal prediction. Within the model’s AD, conformal prediction is used to manage “known unknowns”, and provides finite-sample, distribution-free guarantees of model reliability by constructing prediction intervals that contain the true values with a user-specified coverage probability. I will use two case studies to demonstrate the practical utility of the proposed framework in supporting accurate and reliable pathology-based cancer diagnosis and traffic prediction over large-scale road networks.